2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee

2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee

← 2008November 6, 20122016 →
Turnout61.86% Decrease[1] 4.48 pp
 
NomineeMitt RomneyBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateMassachusettsIllinois
Running matePaul RyanJoe Biden
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,462,330960,709
Percentage59.42%39.04%

County results
Congressional district results
State Senate district results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Romney easily carried Tennessee's 11 electoral votes, winning 59.42% of the vote in the state to Obama's 39.04%.[2] Tennessee has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996, when Bill Clinton won the state and many other states of the South, and Tennessee has not given a majority to a Democratic nominee since fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976. Thus, Tennessee has been seen as part of the modern-day red wall in the 21st century. After 1996, the state had been growing more Republican with almost each election.[3]

Winning Tennessee by 501,621 votes, Mitt Romney achieved his second-largest margin of victory by vote count nationwide, surpassed only by the 1,261,719-vote margin in Texas. Romney gained ground in every county, significantly outperforming prior Presidential GOP candidates in rural areas, particularly in Middle Tennessee. Notably, Romney also flipped two counties, Houston and Jackson, to the Republican column. Both of these majority-white counties had been Democratic strongholds with their strong ties to secessionism: they had each only voted for a Republican presidential nominee once prior to this election, in 1928 and 1920, respectively.[4] Thus, Obama became the first Democrat to be elected without either county. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time in which Hardeman County was won by the Democratic presidential nominee. This is also the first and only time that a Democratic president has won re-election without ever carrying Tennessee.

As consistent with the rest of the country, Obama carried heavily populated and diverse counties. The largest county, Shelby, was won by Obama by a 26.05% margin due to it being home to Memphis, Tennessee's largest city. In addition, the home of the state capital of Nashville, Davidson County, went to Obama by 18.53%. Hardeman and Haywood counties, both low-populated suburbs of Memphis, also went to Obama due to their high African American populations (42.2%[5] and 50.6%,[6] respectively). However, rural areas – including areas in the northwestern portion of the state that had long favored Democratic candidates – saw heavy margins for Romney, allowing him to offset Obama's wins in large cities. The eastern region of the state in Appalachia, some of the most historically Republican and Unionist counties in the country, saw margins of over 70% for the Republican ticket.[7] This was the first election since 1908 in which Tennessee backed the national loser a second consecutive time.

Background

A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Tennessee Democratic primary, 2012

← 2008March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06)2016 →
 
CandidateBarack ObamaUncommitted
Home stateIllinoisN/A
Delegate count820
Popular vote80,35710,497
Percentage88.48%11.51%

Primary results by county
Obama:      60–65%      65–70%      70–75%      75–80%      80–85%      85–90%      90–95%      95–100%

The 2012 democratic primary in Tennessee took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012, with Barack Obama receiving 80,355 (88.5%) votes. Other candidates received a combined total of 10,411 (11.5%) votes.[8] Tennessee had a total of 91 delegates to the 2012 Democratic National Convention, of which 82 were pledged to presidential contenders depending on the popular vote. The remaining 9 super-delegates were unbound.

Tennessee Democratic primary, 2012[9]
CandidatePopular voteDelegates
CountPercentagePledged delegatesSuper delegatesTotal delegates
Barack Obama (incumbent)80,70588.48%82991
Uncommitted10,49711.51%000
John Wolfe Jr. (write-in)70.00%000
Total:91,209100%82991

Republican primary

Tennessee Republican primary, 2012

← 2008March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06)2016 →
 
CandidateRick SantorumMitt Romney
Home statePennsylvaniaMassachusetts
Delegate count2914
Popular vote205,809 155,630
Percentage37.11%28.06%

 
CandidateNewt GingrichRon Paul
Home stateGeorgiaTexas
Delegate count90
Popular vote132,88950,156
Percentage23.96%9.04%

County winner
Vote share
     Santorum
     Romney
     Gingrich

The Republican primary took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.[10][11]

Tennessee has 58 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention. Three superdelegates are unbound. 27 delegates are awarded by congressional district, 3 delegates for each district. If a candidate wins two-thirds of the vote in a district, he takes all 3 delegates there; if not, delegates are split 2-to-1 between the top two candidates. Another 28 delegates are awarded to the candidate who wins two-thirds of the vote statewide, or allocated proportionately among candidates winning at least 20% of the vote if no one gets two-thirds.[12]

Former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum won the primary with a plurality, carrying 37.11% of the vote and all but four counties, awarding him 29 delegates. Former Massachusetts Governor and eventual nominee, Mitt Romney, came second with 28.06% of the vote and 19 delegates. He carried only three counties: Davidson, Loudon, and Williamson. Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich of neighboring Georgia, came third with 23.96% of the vote and 9 delegates, carrying only the county of Marion. Representative from Texas Ron Paul received 9.04% of the vote and all other candidates received under 1% of the vote.[13]

Results

Tennessee Republican primary, 2012[14]
CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate count
NYT
[15]
CNN
[16]
FOX
[17]
Rick Santorum205,80937.11%292726
Mitt Romney155,63028.06%141512
Newt Gingrich132,88923.96%989
Ron Paul50,1569.04%000
Rick Perry (withdrawn)1,9660.35%000
Michele Bachmann (withdrawn)1,8950.34%000
Jon Huntsman (withdrawn)1,2390.22%000
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn)8810.16%000
Gary Johnson (withdrawn)5720.10%000
Uncommitted3,5360.64%000
Unprojected delegates:689
Total:554,573100.00%585858

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[18]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
CNN[19]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
New York Times[20]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
Washington Post[21]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[22]Solid RNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23]Solid RNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[24]Solid RNovember 6, 2012

Results

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2012
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan1,462,33059.42%11
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)Joe Biden (incumbent)960,70939.04%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray18,6230.67%0
GreenJill SteinCheri Honkala6,5150.26%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer6,0220.24%0
JusticeRocky AndersonLuis J. Rodriguez2,6390.11%0
American Third PositionMerlin MillerVirginia D. Abernethy1,7390.07%0
Totals2,458,577100.00%11

By county

CountyMitt Romney
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Anderson18,96863.95%10,12234.13%5691.92%8,84629.82%29,659
Bedford10,03469.46%4,21129.15%2001.39%5,82340.31%14,445
Benton3,85061.84%2,25836.27%1181.89%1,59225.57%6,226
Bledsoe3,02269.33%1,26729.07%701.60%1,75540.26%4,359
Blount35,44171.98%12,93426.27%8591.75%22,50745.71%49,234
Bradley27,42275.97%8,03722.27%6371.76%19,38553.70%36,096
Campbell8,60471.10%3,32827.50%1691.40%5,27643.60%12,101
Cannon3,30966.54%1,56431.45%1002.01%1,74535.09%4,973
Carroll7,22566.58%3,47532.02%1511.40%3,75034.56%10,851
Carter15,50375.20%4,78923.23%3251.57%10,71451.97%20,617
Cheatham10,26867.63%4,65930.69%2551.68%5,60936.94%15,182
Chester4,68473.07%1,62425.34%1021.59%3,06047.73%6,410
Claiborne7,61774.84%2,43323.90%1281.26%5,18450.94%10,178
Clay1,74761.95%1,03736.77%361.28%71025.18%2,820
Cocke8,45973.85%2,80424.48%1911.67%5,65549.37%11,454
Coffee13,02367.62%5,87030.48%3661.90%7,15337.14%19,259
Crockett3,78368.81%1,66930.36%460.83%2,11438.45%5,498
Cumberland18,65373.73%6,26124.75%3841.52%12,39248.98%25,298
Davidson97,62239.76%143,12058.29%4,7921.95%-45,498-18.53%245,534
Decatur2,87467.61%1,30330.65%741.74%1,57136.96%4,251
DeKalb4,14364.40%2,17433.79%1161.81%1,96930.61%6,433
Dickson11,29663.34%6,23334.95%3061.71%5,06328.39%17,835
Dyer9,92171.81%3,75727.19%1381.00%6,16444.62%13,816
Fayette12,68964.83%6,68834.17%1971.00%6,00130.66%19,574
Fentress5,24376.04%1,56122.64%911.32%3,68253.40%6,895
Franklin10,26263.66%5,60334.76%2541.58%4,65928.90%16,119
Gibson12,88365.51%6,56433.38%2201.11%6,31932.13%19,667
Giles6,91564.03%3,76034.82%1241.15%3,15529.21%10,799
Grainger5,47075.43%1,66823.00%1141.57%3,80252.43%7,252
Greene17,24572.19%6,22526.06%4171.75%11,02046.13%23,887
Grundy2,51659.38%1,64338.78%781.84%87320.60%4,237
Hamblen14,52272.49%5,23426.13%2761.38%9,28846.36%20,032
Hamilton79,93356.39%58,83641.51%2,9722.10%21,09714.88%141,741
Hancock1,52774.63%47523.22%442.15%1,05251.41%2,046
Hardeman4,86546.60%5,48252.51%920.89%-617-5.91%10,439
Hardin7,88675.14%2,46723.51%1421.35%5,41951.63%10,495
Hawkins14,38272.50%5,08825.65%3671.85%9,29446.85%19,837
Haywood2,96039.11%4,56960.36%400.53%-1,609-21.25%7,569
Henderson7,42173.80%2,51725.03%1171.17%4,90448.77%10,055
Henry8,19364.31%4,33934.06%2071.63%3,85430.25%12,739
Hickman4,75862.59%2,69835.49%1461.92%2,06027.10%7,602
Houston1,57952.16%1,40046.25%481.59%1795.91%3,027
Humphreys3,83355.85%2,90542.33%1251.82%92813.52%6,863
Jackson2,38356.96%1,73941.56%621.48%64415.40%4,184
Jefferson13,03874.25%4,23224.10%2891.65%8,80650.15%17,559
Johnson4,61174.44%1,48323.94%1001.62%3,12850.50%6,194
Knox109,70763.60%59,39934.43%3,4011.97%50,30829.17%172,507
Lake1,16355.73%88442.36%401.91%27913.37%2,087
Lauderdale4,61653.12%4,01146.16%620.72%6056.96%8,689
Lawrence10,77070.77%4,23727.84%2121.39%6,53342.93%15,219
Lewis3,11766.40%1,44730.83%1302.77%1,67035.57%4,694
Lincoln9,80373.88%3,29024.80%1751.32%6,51349.08%13,268
Loudon16,70775.69%5,05822.91%3081.40%11,64952.78%22,073
Macon5,26076.18%1,55222.48%931.34%3,70853.70%6,905
Madison21,99354.03%18,36745.13%3420.84%3,6268.90%40,702
Marion6,27260.26%3,95337.98%1841.76%2,31922.28%10,409
Marshall6,83263.61%3,72534.68%1841.71%3,10728.93%10,741
Maury20,70862.74%11,82535.83%4731.43%8,88326.91%33,006
McMinn12,96772.71%4,60925.84%2581.45%8,35846.87%17,834
McNairy7,01571.57%2,64526.98%1421.45%4,37044.59%9,802
Meigs2,73468.97%1,16329.34%671.69%1,57139.63%3,964
Monroe11,73171.80%4,37226.76%2351.44%7,35945.04%16,338
Montgomery30,24554.28%24,49943.97%9761.75%5,74610.31%55,720
Moore2,05373.35%70525.19%411.46%1,34848.16%2,799
Morgan4,66971.79%1,72526.52%1101.69%2,94445.27%6,504
Obion8,81471.68%3,32127.01%1621.31%5,49344.67%12,297
Overton4,77562.30%2,80536.60%841.10%1,97025.70%7,664
Perry1,57860.21%99237.85%511.94%58622.36%2,621
Pickett1,71269.79%71229.03%291.18%1,00040.76%2,453
Polk4,10867.80%1,85630.63%951.57%2,25237.17%6,059
Putnam17,25467.66%7,80230.60%4441.74%9,45237.06%25,500
Rhea7,80273.67%2,62824.82%1601.51%5,17448.85%10,590
Roane14,72469.82%6,01828.53%3481.65%8,70641.29%21,090
Robertson17,64367.11%8,29031.53%3561.36%9,35335.58%26,289
Rutherford60,84661.56%36,41436.84%1,5881.60%24,43224.72%98,848
Scott5,11776.74%1,45221.78%991.48%3,66554.96%6,668
Sequatchie3,54168.72%1,48928.90%1232.38%2,05239.82%5,153
Sevier25,98476.73%7,41821.91%4621.36%18,56654.82%33,864
Shelby135,64936.50%232,44362.55%3,5240.95%-96,794-26.05%371,616
Smith4,49563.41%2,47034.84%1241.75%2,02528.57%7,089
Stewart2,96357.93%2,06940.45%831.62%89417.48%5,115
Sullivan43,56272.74%15,32125.58%1,0041.68%28,24147.16%59,887
Sumner46,00370.28%18,57928.38%8751.34%27,42441.90%65,457
Tipton16,67269.23%7,13329.62%2761.15%9,53939.61%24,081
Trousdale1,61255.49%1,24042.69%531.82%37212.80%2,905
Unicoi5,03271.01%1,91327.00%1411.99%3,11944.01%7,086
Union4,28273.35%1,47825.32%781.33%2,80448.03%5,838
Van Buren1,38660.26%87538.04%391.70%51122.22%2,300
Warren8,01061.54%4,75236.51%2531.95%3,25825.03%13,015
Washington32,80868.30%14,32529.82%8991.88%18,48338.48%48,032
Wayne4,25377.52%1,16321.20%701.28%3,09056.32%5,486
Weakley8,60569.75%3,54828.76%1841.49%5,05740.99%12,337
White6,19767.80%2,79530.58%1481.62%3,40237.22%9,140
Williamson69,85072.59%25,14226.13%1,2331.28%44,70846.46%96,225
Wilson36,10969.98%14,69528.48%7931.54%21,41441.50%51,597
Totals1,462,33059.42%960,70939.04%37,8651.54%501,62120.38%2,460,904
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
County flips
Legend

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Mitt Romney swept the state and carried seven of the state's nine congressional districts, all represented by Republicans. Barack Obama carried the state's two congressional districts, the 5th and 9th, anchored by the two largest cities of Nashville and Memphis, respectively.[25]

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st72.7%25.7%
Phil Roe
2nd67.3%30.9%John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd63.3%35.1%Chuck Fleischmann
4th65.3%33.1%Scott DesJarlais
5th42.5%55.9%Jim Cooper
6th69.1%29.5%Diane Black
7th65.7%32.9%Marsha Blackburn
8th66.1%32.8%Stephen Fincher
9th20.9%78.3%Steve Cohen

See also

References

  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2012". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 6, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Tennessee". Retrieved January 4, 2013.
  3. ^ Moskowitz, Seth (March 2, 2020). "The Road to 270: Tennessee". 270toWin. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  4. ^ Skelley, Geoffrey. "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Sheets. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  5. ^ "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Hardeman County, Tennessee". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  6. ^ "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Haywood County, Tennessee". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  7. ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (October 3, 2017). "What Happened to Mountain Republicans in the South?". Inside Elections. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  8. ^ "State of Tennessee Democratic presidential primary" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 12, 2017. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
  9. ^ "State of Tennessee March 6, 2012 Democratic Primary Presidential Preference" (PDF). Tennessee Elections. Tennessee Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 12, 2017. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
  10. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
  11. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  12. ^ Nate Silver (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  13. ^ "Tennessee Republican Primary - Election Results". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  14. ^ "Election results March 2012. County totals" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
  15. ^ "Election 2012: Tennessee Republican Primary". The New York Times. March 8, 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012.
  16. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center - Results: Tennessee". CNN. March 29, 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012. Retrieved July 19, 2012.
  17. ^ "2012 Tennessee Primary". Fox News. 2012. Archived from the original on June 4, 2012.
  18. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  19. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  20. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  21. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  22. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  23. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  24. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  25. ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos.
  • The Green Papers for Tennessee (Republican)
  • The Green Papers for Tennessee (Democratic)
  • The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order
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